As of early August 2016, it seems fairly certain that we're going to end up with a President Hillary Clinton. Given that poll after poll has her far ahead of Trump and pulling away fast, it'd take some sort of mad reversal to change course. Not that a mad reversal is out of the question. There are certainly a number of crazy scenarios which could upend the game board before November. From some new Email leak with damning evidence, to some sort of massive domestic terror attack, an economic collapse, or some other "Black Swan event", in the Age of Uncertainty almost anything doesn't seem out of the question.
But assuming Hillary does end up winning there's a few things that I could see happening.
The most obvious, and concerning, is the certainty that Supreme Court will end up being packed with Liberal Judges. This is pretty much a foregone conclusion and pretty distressing. With that many Liberals, things like the traditional views on the second amendment will very much be under assault.
Other than that, I foresee a strange period. No matter how you slice it, Hillary Clinton is not a widely well liked figure, even (or even especially) amongst her own party. She has extremely low numbers in terms of trust. She has a well known reputation of lying and equivocation, and she has the stench of corruption and graft. My guess is that, unlike Barrack Obama, she will not enjoy a hearty support from regular Americans in the months immediately following the election. I believe this will make it difficult for her to implement anything too radical or controversial.
She'll probably push for at least a $10 minimum raise, and will probably get it, but not the $15 one many of the Bernie Sanders supporting millennials were hoping for. This of course will be nothing but bad news for the economy, which will in turn hurt her approval numbers.
Obamacare will continue its listless unspectacular course, causing difficulties and problems. Hillary probably won't have the mojo to do much about it one way or another.
In terms of Foreign Policy, given Hillary's historically severe incompetence during her tenure as Sec. of State, it seems likely that nothing good will come. It's a virtual certainty that she will continue Barrak Obama's middle east policy with regards to Iran, Syria, and Iraq. This will probably lead to more major terrorist attacks in Europe, which will lead to more economic instability.
She'll also continue Obama's immigration policies, generally not enforcing our border security. Millions and millions more illegals will flood into our southwestern states, putting even more strain on a labor market that is becoming more service based and more automated and robotized every year. There will be fewer and fewer jobs to be had and more and more people who need them. This of course will lead to even more economic distress.
Given all these various problems, I foresee a continued period of economic uncertainty, insecurity, and general malaise. And I see Hillary being a generally unpopular president because of all that.
This will offer opportunities for people on the right in 2 and 4 years. But who those people will be and what party they'll be is a topic for another post, since I do not believe the GOP will survive this loss as any kind of force.
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
Friday, August 5, 2016
The Age of Uncertainty
In my mind the main theme of 2015 - 2016 is Uncertainty. We're living in the Age of Uncertainty.
Over the past couple years there have been numerous events that just a few years ago most people would've have thought of as impossible, absurd, or at least highly unlikely. Week after week there seems to be some new tragedy that dominates the news cycle.
In US politics the surreal has become the new normal.
For presidential candidates, on one side we have a bombastic reality TV show host who behaves more like a professional wrestler never breaking kayfabe than a normal politician. He bullies, exaggerates, complains loudly, and never apologizes... ever. A candidate who is clearly consumed by superficiality. A candidate who would rather insult a potential alley than concede a point. A candidate who can not let things go. A candidate who can never allow even the mildest critique of his person go unrevenged. A candidate who is completely unreceptive to any advice. A candidate who would rather lose than ask for help. A boorish, garish, man-child with the head shape and complexion of a jack-o-lantern.
On the other side we have the corrupt "congenital liar" with a long history of obvious malfeasance. A candidate who has clearly lied numerous times about extremely critical events and gotten away with it for decades. A candidate who demonstrably jeopardized national security with a private email server. A candidate who while acting as Secretary of State whose "Charitable Foundation" received several extremely questionable donations from foreign powers, especially in light of events immediately following those donations. In short, a candidate whose venality may only be matched by her sheer hubris. And we haven't even touched on her incompetence.
How did we get here? Well, in the simplest terms, the Democrats felt the owed Hillary Clinton after 2008 and the Republicans ignored the concerns of their base after the 2012 election. But of course we all know that the story is far more complex than that.
Given those insane options, it's no wonder that people are extremely uncertain about the future. We seem to be shooting the whitewater rapids of some uncharted mountain stream.
Over the past couple years there have been numerous events that just a few years ago most people would've have thought of as impossible, absurd, or at least highly unlikely. Week after week there seems to be some new tragedy that dominates the news cycle.
In US politics the surreal has become the new normal.
For presidential candidates, on one side we have a bombastic reality TV show host who behaves more like a professional wrestler never breaking kayfabe than a normal politician. He bullies, exaggerates, complains loudly, and never apologizes... ever. A candidate who is clearly consumed by superficiality. A candidate who would rather insult a potential alley than concede a point. A candidate who can not let things go. A candidate who can never allow even the mildest critique of his person go unrevenged. A candidate who is completely unreceptive to any advice. A candidate who would rather lose than ask for help. A boorish, garish, man-child with the head shape and complexion of a jack-o-lantern.
On the other side we have the corrupt "congenital liar" with a long history of obvious malfeasance. A candidate who has clearly lied numerous times about extremely critical events and gotten away with it for decades. A candidate who demonstrably jeopardized national security with a private email server. A candidate who while acting as Secretary of State whose "Charitable Foundation" received several extremely questionable donations from foreign powers, especially in light of events immediately following those donations. In short, a candidate whose venality may only be matched by her sheer hubris. And we haven't even touched on her incompetence.
How did we get here? Well, in the simplest terms, the Democrats felt the owed Hillary Clinton after 2008 and the Republicans ignored the concerns of their base after the 2012 election. But of course we all know that the story is far more complex than that.
Given those insane options, it's no wonder that people are extremely uncertain about the future. We seem to be shooting the whitewater rapids of some uncharted mountain stream.
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